Politcal Predictions (Super Tuesday)

This election year has seen a lot of predictions. Only a few months ago, people were saying that Giuliani would win the Republican nomination. He was in the forefront of the news cycle and then... he disappeared. During the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, Giuliani became a ghost and that's where he ended up, briefly haunting Florida long enough to concede and endorse McCain.

Fred Thomspon received a lot of hype when he announced his candidacy on Jay Leno, but his campaign had all the sizzle of a damp sparkler in rainstorm.

More recently, the media seemed convinced Romney would win Florida since McCain couldn't count on the independent voters who helped him win New Hampshire. But against all conventional wisdom, McCain still won.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was initially considered "inevitable." Obama's win in Iowa quickly changed that causing those same pundits to assume she was out of the race completely! New Hampshire had them again turning 180 degrees, thinking that Obama might have been outflanked -- until he won in South Carolina.

If this race has proven anything, it's that the conventional wisdom of the pundits, pollsters, and analysts has often been consistently wrong.

I think their incorrect predictions are caused in part because they believe their own hype. Instead of examining the (let's face it, very fickle) mood of the people, they report on polls, spin, and what they hear from their colleagues (who are reporting on polls, spin and what they hear from their colleagues).

I certainly don't have any extra prescience here. However, I did correctly predict (here) that McCain would win New Hampshire when everyone else seemed to think it would go to Romney. I further explained my reasoning in a short column called Republicans Hate Romney which sparked a debate between myself and Nzingha Clarke who pointed out that Republicans also dislike McCain. While it's true that some Republicans consider McCain a "liberal," this is primarily the far right, religiously fanatic, overzealous Rush Limbaugh wing. About the only positive result of The Bush administration is that it's finally moved the party away from the hard right neocon agenda that spent eight years destroying this country.

At any rate, with the neocons out of favor the Republicans have been forced to choose from a more "moderate" list of candidates. Given the choice between Romney and McCain, I think most Republicans are going to rally behind McCain who will most likely take a solid lead tomorrow.

On the Democratic side, I'm surprised to say that it's far closer. At the beginning of the year, I felt that Republicans, having a longer list of potential candidates, would still be up in the air at this point while one of the two leading Democratic nominees would have pulled ahead. Interestingly enough, tomorrow could still find the Democrats exactly where they are today -- divided. My own prediction has gone back and forth during the writing of this column, first Obama, then Clinton. However, I think that is my prediction: tomorrow will bring us no closer as both candidates will remain in a dead heat.

Jumping even further ahead, here is my current prediction on possible outcomes in November. Keep in mind that anything could happen between now and then that could sway my opinion in a different direction. But at this moment in time, here are my match ups (and although I don't think Romney will get the nomination, I'm still going to give him the benefit of the doubt and include him):

Romney vs. Clinton - Clinton wins.
Obama vs. Romney - Obama wins
McCain vs. Clinton - McCain wins.
Obama vs. McCain - ? (This is the most interesting race.)

Republicans Hate Romney!

Republicans hate Romney. That's why McCain won the Florida primary, a vote many people (mostly referring to pollsters, pundits, and media analysts) felt he would have trouble winning because only Republicans could vote and much of the support that put McCain over the edge in New Hampshire came from independents. But even without the independent voters, McCain still won by a margin of five percent. (McCain = 36% / Romney = 31% / Giuliani = 15% (taken from the L.A. Times.))

Even crazier, McCain won at a time when Americans are reporting the economy as their number one concern and McCain recently admitted he didn't know much about the economy! (Although he quickly backpedaled on that one, Tim Russert dug out the quote and confronted McCain with his own words on last Sundays Meet the Press.) Romney, a successful businessman with a degree from Harvard Business School, who has successfully run several companies and outspent McCain -- still lost!

So why do Republicans hate Romney? Oh, let me count the ways. 1. He's a Mormon (when I think 40% of the base are Evangelicals). 2. They don't know if they can trust him since he's flip-flopped on some of their key "value" issues: abortion and gay rights, not to mention he's lied about owning a gun, exaggerated his hunting experience and flip-flopped again on (gasp) immigration. 3. They're very unsure if he can win against the Democratic nominee. 4. The other candidates hate him because he has such deep pockets and doesn't need to run around the country conducting fund raisers. 5. And finally, did I mention he's a Mormon?

Aside from the above points, however, I think there is a much more basic psychological component. McCain is soft-spoken, affable and looks like grandpa. We all know he served in the military and though, just like every politician, he's flip-flopped, lied, and switched positions over the years, he's still considered a straight shooter.

Romney, however, is the symbol of the slick, successful CEO that everyone hates. Yes, he's successful, trim, handsome, and surrounded by an adoring family, but Americans love an underdog (how else do you explain George W., one of the biggest losers in the world winning the highest office in the land) and Romney is too successful, too polished, his family too happy and his hair too shiny. In other words, he just seems fake.

Obviously, not all Republicans hate him or he wouldn't be doing as well as he is. But, generally speaking, Romney supporters probably aren't as excited or passionate about their candidate the way McCain, Clinton and Obama supporters feel about their candidate. Instead, he's kind of like Kerry was for the Democrats in 2004 -- reasonably competent, insanely rich, and they figure he can't possibly do worse than his predecessor.

Given the choice between Romney and McCain, my bet is that Republicans will eventually choose McCain. After all, how can you not like grandpa?

Political Predictions (New Hampshire)

I have made a few interesting predictions of late, and I've decided to put myself to the test. Granted, this all depends on today's results in New Hampshire. Since everything could change by the end of the day, my long term predictions could be moot.

If Obama wins today, I think he'll end up winning the Democratic nomination as long as he doesn't screw up in the next few weeks. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if we ultimately see an Obama / Edwards ticket. It would be smart for Edwards since he would then be the heir apparent after Obama (assuming Obama gets two terms). Of course, it just occurred to me as I was writing that he'd inherit the presidency if Obama was assassinated during his administration since we still live in an incredibly racist society despite the fact that we have our first serious black and female Presidential candidates (the sad point being that it took us this long).

If McCain wins, I think that he'll have a very tough fight on his hands, but he could stage a miraculous comeback (since he was politically dead up until the past week) and the chance to win his party's nomination since Republicans as a whole don't feel strongly enough about any other single candidate. The party is quite splintered right now and McCain could be the one candidate the entire party rallies behind. Obviously, Giuliani could still end up winning, but the other candidates are dead. Romney is out (he just doesn't know it yet), and despite his big win in Iowa, Huckabee doesn't have a chance (though he could turn up as a third party candidate later in the game), and the few others (Fred Thompson, Ron Paul) are a joke.

It's my opinion that McCain is the Republicans best hope to win in November. Although Guiliani could still end up with the nomination, many Republicans don't like his values which I think will invite a third party candidate (Huckabee?) and split the conservative vote almost guaranteeing a Democratic win -- unless Clinton does end up with the Democratic nomination. She's the one candidate who will rally Republicans to the polls no matter who is on the Republican ticket just so they can vote against her.

Let's see what happens!

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Ladies & Gentlemen, Your President...

The following excerpt is from today's New York Times Sunday Book Review. The book is Dead Certain: The Presidency of George W. Bush by Robert Draper. A second book, The Terror Presidency: Law and Judgment Inside the Bush Administration by Jack Goldsmith, is also reviewed.

But there is another, less attractive part of the Bush persona: the mean-minded frat boy. At the 1992 Republican National Convention, Senator John McCain was about to speak for the re-election of Bush 41 when young George came up to him and said, according to Draper, “You’ve gotta hammer Clinton on the draft dodging.” That from a man who had weaved his way out of serving in Vietnam. McCain replied, “Sorry, that’s not my thing.”

On Jan. 31, 2001, soon after taking office, Bush held a cabinet meeting. When he entered the room, one chair was empty: the secretary of state’s. “Lock the door,” Bush said. A few minutes later Colin Powell could be heard trying the doorknob. The room “erupted with laughter.” Then Bush ordered the door unlocked. He “had made his point,” Draper says; Powell was “not the big dog any longer.” That the president of the United States would want to show how important he was by humiliating Colin Powell speaks volumes.

The link to the full article is here.