Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Political Predictions (New Hampshire)

I have made a few interesting predictions of late, and I've decided to put myself to the test. Granted, this all depends on today's results in New Hampshire. Since everything could change by the end of the day, my long term predictions could be moot.

If Obama wins today, I think he'll end up winning the Democratic nomination as long as he doesn't screw up in the next few weeks. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if we ultimately see an Obama / Edwards ticket. It would be smart for Edwards since he would then be the heir apparent after Obama (assuming Obama gets two terms). Of course, it just occurred to me as I was writing that he'd inherit the presidency if Obama was assassinated during his administration since we still live in an incredibly racist society despite the fact that we have our first serious black and female Presidential candidates (the sad point being that it took us this long).

If McCain wins, I think that he'll have a very tough fight on his hands, but he could stage a miraculous comeback (since he was politically dead up until the past week) and the chance to win his party's nomination since Republicans as a whole don't feel strongly enough about any other single candidate. The party is quite splintered right now and McCain could be the one candidate the entire party rallies behind. Obviously, Giuliani could still end up winning, but the other candidates are dead. Romney is out (he just doesn't know it yet), and despite his big win in Iowa, Huckabee doesn't have a chance (though he could turn up as a third party candidate later in the game), and the few others (Fred Thompson, Ron Paul) are a joke.

It's my opinion that McCain is the Republicans best hope to win in November. Although Guiliani could still end up with the nomination, many Republicans don't like his values which I think will invite a third party candidate (Huckabee?) and split the conservative vote almost guaranteeing a Democratic win -- unless Clinton does end up with the Democratic nomination. She's the one candidate who will rally Republicans to the polls no matter who is on the Republican ticket just so they can vote against her.

Let's see what happens!

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